"It is significant that the hostilities, which began under the pretext of the need to move NATO away from our borders, have already led to the opposite result: two of our neighboring countries - Sweden and Finland - have decided to abandon their neutral status. Moreover, in Finland this happened at the request of the people. Now NATO can, if desired, deploy missiles a few tens of kilometers from St. Petersburg. The requirements regarding the neutrality of Ukraine have lost all meaning. NATO has already come closer to Russia than it would be even if Kyiv joined; from the Finnish border to St. Petersburg, the distance is several times less than from Kharkiv to Moscow."
Without a doubt, this quote succinctly and accurately describes the most important consequence of Russia's war on Ukraine: in a matter of weeks, NATO has already become stronger and more united as a result of Russia's actions. Heck, even Switzerland, a country that has been strictly neutral for centuries, was so disgusted with Putin's actions that it has CHOSEN to abandon its stated neutrality position and enforce sanctions. Congratulations, Vladimir, you have achieved something that not even Hitler could accomplish!
Well there is certainly some truth in your rant. But be advised that the US MIC/etc has no intention of stopping until Russia is balkanized, disarmed and has new leadership. They smell blood, their veins are pumped full of testosterone and their egos are getting vindication (and validaton) after losing the game of occupier to the Afghans. Even a complete and humiliating victory the US no more wants Russias surrender under the harshest of terms than it did in 1989. The bottom line is that for the US to maintain its global hegemony it needs a lasting Cold War. This is an appetite that can never be sated by one country grovelling in submission. It is a permanent state of war necessary to sustain the aging empire which is in need of internal reform as much as any other. Like elderly, wealthy men drinking the blood of youth to insure immortality....
Shame, the article had so much promise before it uttered the word "blitzkreig" in the title. This was never the style of operation intended by the Russian MoD.
"Ukraine is no longer the same as it was 8 years ago. There was clearly no plan B. They did not prepare for a prolonged armed struggle in hostile territory.": Anyone who has studied war in history realizes there is never a "Plan B", despite the fact that "Plan A" never works out as envisioned. It's called "the fog of war". When will the human race ever figure this out and quit warring with each other?
So Russia has not destroyed virtually all of Ukraine's military capacity? Ukraine still has a viable air force and navy? The Ukrainian army is not in the process of surrendering Mariupol? There are no ultranationalists in Ukraine? No ethnic Russians were killed in Donbass by the Ukrainian army? Europe is not crashing towards recession? I'm sure there are plenty of reasons to hate Putin, but maybe you've got the surrendering party wrong? Surrender is a loaded term anyway regardless of who does it. It should be seen as a peace accord to save lives.
I sympathize greatly with the writer of this post. Although obviously the Ukraine is being ripped apart militarily now, when all is said and done and the invasion ended (even if they acknowledge loss of the Crimea and part of the Donbas region, the biggest loser long term will be Russia. That is why no one thought that Putin, supposedly a master tactician would invade.
After all, although the Ukraibian leader Zelensky now agree not to joinNATO, the Ukraine was never going to be allowed to join anyway-that’s why the application sat for 8 years after the fall of the Crimea. Meantime now it is clear that the Ukraibe will be fast tracked to the EU, unlike Turkey and as such will get many hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild and Re modernize. Plus, clearly it’s military, even if not part of NATO will get access to thousands and thousands of anti armor equipment and will develop their own missiles. Meantime Sweden and Finland will likely join NATzo leaving the potential of missiles within 30 miles of St Petersburg. and the possibility of a totally new 1000 Mike long frontier that Russia needs to militarize. Finally over 200,000 of Russia’s best and brightest have already left in less than 2 months with many hundreds of thousands likely to follow as sanction hit harder and harder and it becomes Europe’s reason d’etre to completely eliminate buying oil and gas from Russia within a few years. This will effectively leave Russia to the “tender mercies” of China a power that certainly covets Russia’s resources.
Yes the best thing for Russia would be to negotiate a peace . Heck Putin can even bizarrely claim he “won” by killing off much of the Azov Batallion (even though now they will be replaced by 10 times as many new recruits that now have reason to fiercely hate Russia), and crow that The Ukraine will not join NATO and that they have “secured the peace” for the Donbas and Crimea.
Unfortunately Putin appears to lack the self reflection and the agility to be able to do this so regrettably even more Russians and Ukrainians are likely to keep dying
Both Ukraine and Russia are fascist-adjacent nakedly oligarchic states. Ukraine especially is run on a nakedly neo-feudalist or industrio-feudalist model. The principal politicians control their own militias, while simultaneously being governors of, for example, "pacified" Russian speaking areas that are being subjected to increasing linguistic and other repressions. These two hyper-oligarchic klepto-capitalist states are being used by the far more sophisticated Western capitalist powers like dogs pitted against each other for great profit--and its working. Obviously the whole ultra-nationalist ideology that has an imperious hold over most authorities in Ukraine (including such things as the Ukrainian Film Academy) is massive, all but Orwellian, in its anti-democratic enforcement, as is to be expected from the fact that both Ukraine and Russia are run for and by oligarchs.
The Maidan revolution is surely an almost completely failed enterprise considering the level of democratic repression, with literal fascist battalions on the official march, seen in Ukraine long before the Russian invasion. Obviously if the states in question, especially Ukraine, had been able to combine socialism with democracy it would have been NATO itself doing the attacking.
So what is in evidence both in the case of Russia and Ukraine is the absolute failure of even a social democratic possibility and the submission of the respective populations tout court to oligarchy, whose natural political disposition is fascistic, because it naturally fears the masses from which it has stolen so much and so resorts to their fascistic repression and because fascism's ultra-nationalism is simultaneously a long-resorted to popular distraction from the more fundamental menace and pre-existing threat to the well-being of the population: oligarchy (and from which all other menaces, not least of which war, arise). If the people of both countries had been able to do away with oligarchism and its handmaid fascist ultra-nationalism then surely the present war would not have come about.
".....a classic mistake that governments make when they are not ready to embark on urgent and inevitable reforms." All reading, look in that mirror, please.
This article does a good job looking at the situation from Russia's POV, and a bit from the US/ NATO/ West. But, like so many before the invasion, it continues to ignore Ukraine and Ukrainian desires. Today, and certainly for the next few weeks & months, tho unlikely for many years, Ukrainians are willing to fight, to KILL, and to DIE, for "Ukraine".
What's Next is the question of WHERE is the peaceful border? Is it Donbas? Does Crimea stay with Russia? What are the Ukrainian's willing to die for, and for how long? Who will control what's left of Mariupol?
There's also the WHEN will there be some "peace" - a huge reduction in killing based on some agreement.
Naturally both Zelenskyy's team and Putin's team will be negotiating for maximum demands. I suspect Russia keeps Crimea (& Sevastopol), and probably Donbas, despite not caring so much about their development during the last 8 years of occupation.
My own goal would be peace, sooner. So neither side "wins", but both stop fighting and killing.
My article here (https://www.thomaspaines.blog/p/an-open-letter-to-vladimir-vladimirovich) is dated and quite obviously overcome by events. But I would very much like to read a Russian perspective on what I call "the ancient things which have always been and the old things of our family memories." The Russian world view seems driven by both; we have neither.
"It is significant that the hostilities, which began under the pretext of the need to move NATO away from our borders, have already led to the opposite result: two of our neighboring countries - Sweden and Finland - have decided to abandon their neutral status. Moreover, in Finland this happened at the request of the people. Now NATO can, if desired, deploy missiles a few tens of kilometers from St. Petersburg. The requirements regarding the neutrality of Ukraine have lost all meaning. NATO has already come closer to Russia than it would be even if Kyiv joined; from the Finnish border to St. Petersburg, the distance is several times less than from Kharkiv to Moscow."
Without a doubt, this quote succinctly and accurately describes the most important consequence of Russia's war on Ukraine: in a matter of weeks, NATO has already become stronger and more united as a result of Russia's actions. Heck, even Switzerland, a country that has been strictly neutral for centuries, was so disgusted with Putin's actions that it has CHOSEN to abandon its stated neutrality position and enforce sanctions. Congratulations, Vladimir, you have achieved something that not even Hitler could accomplish!
Well there is certainly some truth in your rant. But be advised that the US MIC/etc has no intention of stopping until Russia is balkanized, disarmed and has new leadership. They smell blood, their veins are pumped full of testosterone and their egos are getting vindication (and validaton) after losing the game of occupier to the Afghans. Even a complete and humiliating victory the US no more wants Russias surrender under the harshest of terms than it did in 1989. The bottom line is that for the US to maintain its global hegemony it needs a lasting Cold War. This is an appetite that can never be sated by one country grovelling in submission. It is a permanent state of war necessary to sustain the aging empire which is in need of internal reform as much as any other. Like elderly, wealthy men drinking the blood of youth to insure immortality....
Shame, the article had so much promise before it uttered the word "blitzkreig" in the title. This was never the style of operation intended by the Russian MoD.
"Ukraine is no longer the same as it was 8 years ago. There was clearly no plan B. They did not prepare for a prolonged armed struggle in hostile territory.": Anyone who has studied war in history realizes there is never a "Plan B", despite the fact that "Plan A" never works out as envisioned. It's called "the fog of war". When will the human race ever figure this out and quit warring with each other?
So Russia has not destroyed virtually all of Ukraine's military capacity? Ukraine still has a viable air force and navy? The Ukrainian army is not in the process of surrendering Mariupol? There are no ultranationalists in Ukraine? No ethnic Russians were killed in Donbass by the Ukrainian army? Europe is not crashing towards recession? I'm sure there are plenty of reasons to hate Putin, but maybe you've got the surrendering party wrong? Surrender is a loaded term anyway regardless of who does it. It should be seen as a peace accord to save lives.
Fascinating.
Thank you Boris for your courage, and thank you Matt for bringing this viewpoint to the world.
This is so biased, the only traitor here is you.
I sympathize greatly with the writer of this post. Although obviously the Ukraine is being ripped apart militarily now, when all is said and done and the invasion ended (even if they acknowledge loss of the Crimea and part of the Donbas region, the biggest loser long term will be Russia. That is why no one thought that Putin, supposedly a master tactician would invade.
After all, although the Ukraibian leader Zelensky now agree not to joinNATO, the Ukraine was never going to be allowed to join anyway-that’s why the application sat for 8 years after the fall of the Crimea. Meantime now it is clear that the Ukraibe will be fast tracked to the EU, unlike Turkey and as such will get many hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild and Re modernize. Plus, clearly it’s military, even if not part of NATO will get access to thousands and thousands of anti armor equipment and will develop their own missiles. Meantime Sweden and Finland will likely join NATzo leaving the potential of missiles within 30 miles of St Petersburg. and the possibility of a totally new 1000 Mike long frontier that Russia needs to militarize. Finally over 200,000 of Russia’s best and brightest have already left in less than 2 months with many hundreds of thousands likely to follow as sanction hit harder and harder and it becomes Europe’s reason d’etre to completely eliminate buying oil and gas from Russia within a few years. This will effectively leave Russia to the “tender mercies” of China a power that certainly covets Russia’s resources.
Yes the best thing for Russia would be to negotiate a peace . Heck Putin can even bizarrely claim he “won” by killing off much of the Azov Batallion (even though now they will be replaced by 10 times as many new recruits that now have reason to fiercely hate Russia), and crow that The Ukraine will not join NATO and that they have “secured the peace” for the Donbas and Crimea.
Unfortunately Putin appears to lack the self reflection and the agility to be able to do this so regrettably even more Russians and Ukrainians are likely to keep dying
Both Ukraine and Russia are fascist-adjacent nakedly oligarchic states. Ukraine especially is run on a nakedly neo-feudalist or industrio-feudalist model. The principal politicians control their own militias, while simultaneously being governors of, for example, "pacified" Russian speaking areas that are being subjected to increasing linguistic and other repressions. These two hyper-oligarchic klepto-capitalist states are being used by the far more sophisticated Western capitalist powers like dogs pitted against each other for great profit--and its working. Obviously the whole ultra-nationalist ideology that has an imperious hold over most authorities in Ukraine (including such things as the Ukrainian Film Academy) is massive, all but Orwellian, in its anti-democratic enforcement, as is to be expected from the fact that both Ukraine and Russia are run for and by oligarchs.
The Maidan revolution is surely an almost completely failed enterprise considering the level of democratic repression, with literal fascist battalions on the official march, seen in Ukraine long before the Russian invasion. Obviously if the states in question, especially Ukraine, had been able to combine socialism with democracy it would have been NATO itself doing the attacking.
So what is in evidence both in the case of Russia and Ukraine is the absolute failure of even a social democratic possibility and the submission of the respective populations tout court to oligarchy, whose natural political disposition is fascistic, because it naturally fears the masses from which it has stolen so much and so resorts to their fascistic repression and because fascism's ultra-nationalism is simultaneously a long-resorted to popular distraction from the more fundamental menace and pre-existing threat to the well-being of the population: oligarchy (and from which all other menaces, not least of which war, arise). If the people of both countries had been able to do away with oligarchism and its handmaid fascist ultra-nationalism then surely the present war would not have come about.
As an American I fully support the Citizens of Russia. I hope you can get the Putin regime out of office and take your country back!
Unfortunately, there are many examples of world powers willing to pay high prices to avoid admitting a mistake. "Our prestige is at stake!"
".....a classic mistake that governments make when they are not ready to embark on urgent and inevitable reforms." All reading, look in that mirror, please.
This article does a good job looking at the situation from Russia's POV, and a bit from the US/ NATO/ West. But, like so many before the invasion, it continues to ignore Ukraine and Ukrainian desires. Today, and certainly for the next few weeks & months, tho unlikely for many years, Ukrainians are willing to fight, to KILL, and to DIE, for "Ukraine".
What's Next is the question of WHERE is the peaceful border? Is it Donbas? Does Crimea stay with Russia? What are the Ukrainian's willing to die for, and for how long? Who will control what's left of Mariupol?
There's also the WHEN will there be some "peace" - a huge reduction in killing based on some agreement.
Naturally both Zelenskyy's team and Putin's team will be negotiating for maximum demands. I suspect Russia keeps Crimea (& Sevastopol), and probably Donbas, despite not caring so much about their development during the last 8 years of occupation.
My own goal would be peace, sooner. So neither side "wins", but both stop fighting and killing.
Good luck to the Russian people, and particularly to the contributors on this substack.
My article here (https://www.thomaspaines.blog/p/an-open-letter-to-vladimir-vladimirovich) is dated and quite obviously overcome by events. But I would very much like to read a Russian perspective on what I call "the ancient things which have always been and the old things of our family memories." The Russian world view seems driven by both; we have neither.
Can you include this in Russian also? It might be useful for some.