NATO has depleted its weapons stores. Western Europe, without the cheap Russian gas that fueled their industrialization and urban growth, are facing catastrophic collapse. The United States, also short on fuel, fertilizer and facing increasing rejection by former allies, will suffer banking and financial market shrinkage. This "war" was never about Ukraine. The U.S. has supplied Ukraine with weapons, training and relief (billions of U.S. dollars!) and it was the State Department that rejected Russia's offers of peace. No de-nazification or independence of the ethnic Russian states of Donbas and Luhansk. The Minsk Accords, often referred to by your Foreign Affairs Chief Mr. Lavrov, was never meant to be followed. Zelensky just built up his war machine and fired on his own people. I believe that the Western powers made a huge error in assessing Russia's economic and military capacity. Russia made a huge error in underestimating the human cost of a fraternal war. Sadly, no one wins this conflict, and the Biden regime just continues to send weapons. The Russian military, with the Donetsk and Luhansk infantry, continue shelling and killing the ill-trained Ukraines. The citizens of the world watch in horror. I believe that even if the artillery ceased firing today, the hate and sadness may march on for a long, long time.
Before one can guess the end of the war, one must examine the nature of the war and of its participants. The primary contenders in the present war are the United States and Russia. (Ukraine is a participant, but mostly as a cat's paw and sacrificial victim.)
As the Nazi philosopher Carl Schmitt observed, the nature of the modern nation-state is fundamentally totalitarian; it is based on the assumption that it has ultimate absolute sovereign power of the lives of its inhabitants and their property and means of life. The corresponding political form is fascism at home and Realpolitik abroad. The fascist idea is, in short: (1) Some people are better than others; (2) the better can know who they are and what to do about it; (3) The better people, should, indeed, must, by any means necessary including violence, take power in the state for the good of all.
The corresponding psychological form is sociopathy.
Alternatives to this sort of state have been proposed (for example the American Constitution) but experience shows us that even the most cleverly designed have thus far decayed eventually into their absolutist core.
Naturally, the more pressure the absolutist state comes under, the more fascistic it becomes. We now observe this process in the aforesaid primary contenders. It is rather more apparent in Russia, where the regime resembles a Mafia and its great leader a Mafia don. One can read about his behavior in one of the American Mafia novels, or see it in the movies: challenged, the don declares "Do unto other _before_ they do unto you."
The American case is more complex because in the US there seems to be a sort of group mind, where, without any overt compulsion, the upper and upper-middle classes sign up for whatever the leadership promotes. (There may have been corresponding periods in Russian history, but of them, as of so many things, I am ignorant.) There is no serious dissent. There is no functional Left.
So when will the war stop? It could be stopped right now by the contending parties: all that is needed is for them to declare victory and get out. The US has done this before, so perhaps they could instruct their Russian counterparts. But at present too many people in both fascistic combines are profiting or enjoying themselves. They have to get tired, or sick, or run into serious opposition at home. I think both sides are not ready for declaring victory and getting out; they want to try a few more tricks. Maybe next summer?
NATO has depleted its weapons stores. Western Europe, without the cheap Russian gas that fueled their industrialization and urban growth, are facing catastrophic collapse. The United States, also short on fuel, fertilizer and facing increasing rejection by former allies, will suffer banking and financial market shrinkage. This "war" was never about Ukraine. The U.S. has supplied Ukraine with weapons, training and relief (billions of U.S. dollars!) and it was the State Department that rejected Russia's offers of peace. No de-nazification or independence of the ethnic Russian states of Donbas and Luhansk. The Minsk Accords, often referred to by your Foreign Affairs Chief Mr. Lavrov, was never meant to be followed. Zelensky just built up his war machine and fired on his own people. I believe that the Western powers made a huge error in assessing Russia's economic and military capacity. Russia made a huge error in underestimating the human cost of a fraternal war. Sadly, no one wins this conflict, and the Biden regime just continues to send weapons. The Russian military, with the Donetsk and Luhansk infantry, continue shelling and killing the ill-trained Ukraines. The citizens of the world watch in horror. I believe that even if the artillery ceased firing today, the hate and sadness may march on for a long, long time.
Before one can guess the end of the war, one must examine the nature of the war and of its participants. The primary contenders in the present war are the United States and Russia. (Ukraine is a participant, but mostly as a cat's paw and sacrificial victim.)
As the Nazi philosopher Carl Schmitt observed, the nature of the modern nation-state is fundamentally totalitarian; it is based on the assumption that it has ultimate absolute sovereign power of the lives of its inhabitants and their property and means of life. The corresponding political form is fascism at home and Realpolitik abroad. The fascist idea is, in short: (1) Some people are better than others; (2) the better can know who they are and what to do about it; (3) The better people, should, indeed, must, by any means necessary including violence, take power in the state for the good of all.
The corresponding psychological form is sociopathy.
Alternatives to this sort of state have been proposed (for example the American Constitution) but experience shows us that even the most cleverly designed have thus far decayed eventually into their absolutist core.
Naturally, the more pressure the absolutist state comes under, the more fascistic it becomes. We now observe this process in the aforesaid primary contenders. It is rather more apparent in Russia, where the regime resembles a Mafia and its great leader a Mafia don. One can read about his behavior in one of the American Mafia novels, or see it in the movies: challenged, the don declares "Do unto other _before_ they do unto you."
The American case is more complex because in the US there seems to be a sort of group mind, where, without any overt compulsion, the upper and upper-middle classes sign up for whatever the leadership promotes. (There may have been corresponding periods in Russian history, but of them, as of so many things, I am ignorant.) There is no serious dissent. There is no functional Left.
So when will the war stop? It could be stopped right now by the contending parties: all that is needed is for them to declare victory and get out. The US has done this before, so perhaps they could instruct their Russian counterparts. But at present too many people in both fascistic combines are profiting or enjoying themselves. They have to get tired, or sick, or run into serious opposition at home. I think both sides are not ready for declaring victory and getting out; they want to try a few more tricks. Maybe next summer?
"Everything's going according to plan."
https://youtu.be/nMykX1X98Bc
Predictions are a risky business, but my crystal ball shows the cessation of hostilities following the US presidential elections in 2024.