Alexander Rybin
Many readers, I am sure, are already well aware of events that occurred during the first half of May near the village of Belogorovka. Search the internet for keywords if not: Russian army, Belogorovka, crossing, armored vehicles, etc. Of course, what had happened was the first steps of the plan for a special military operation in Ukraine, which in Russia is forbidden to be called a war. But perhaps more bad news awaits, and I think I can make a guess: the Russian army won’t be finished off by the armed forces of Ukraine (APU), or by the damned West, but by its own leadership, the band of armchair Moscow generals. However, this may be the lesson of the special operation.
In the summer of 2014 the Novorossiya militias, fortunately for them, made strategic and tactical decisions on their own, without assistance from the brilliant strategists of the General Staff in Moscow. It was precisely due to this fact that the militias could execute their own plans; for example, pinning down several hundred APU servicemen at the Luhansk airport for almost two months with minimal forces of their own (far fewer than those they had trapped), and defending the city of Luhansk from vastly numerically superior enemy forces of both regular Ukrainian army and of the “Aidar” nationalist battalion. At the same time, the Luhansk militias suffered minimal losses, both of personnel and in equipment (then, when equipment really was “worth its weight in gold,” the hobbling of even one padded armored personnel carrier was indeed a tragedy).
From January to February 2015, the Prizrak brigade - whose commander Alexey Mozgovoy did not mindlessly obey the “Moscow custodians” but made tactical decisions independently and in accordance with the operational situation - suffered minimal losses during the blockade and capture of Debaltseve, losing but eight fighters. Soldiers of this unit would eventually plant the flag of Novorossiya on the tallest building in the city. Meanwhile, the units of the militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), which, in accordance with the plans of the “custodians,” charged the APU’s foreward positions, at a cost of hundreds of fighters killed and, as a result, were able to enter Debaltseve only after the formations of the Luhansk People’s Republic occupied the city.
The current special operation in Ukraine is being carried out under the open leadership of the Russian General Staff, who have shown to the world the extent of their tactical and strategic talents. And not only generals, but admirals too - recall the fate of the Moskva, the flagship of the Fleet of the Black Sea, which now rests on its bottom. Recall too: the attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv, the subsequent withdrawal of troops from Kyiv and Chernihivv, the offensive on Kharkiv, the swift retreat from Kharkiv, the attempt to encircle the most combat-ready grouping of the APU in the Donbass, where, as it happened, they could not be surrounded.
In contrast to the actions that the Russian army has taken so far (consisting of advances paired with retreats), the special operation now seems to be moving on to the third phase - “to keep what they have occupied.”
Let me remind you that the first phase of the operation was the direct entry of the Russian army into Ukraine from five directions at once. The second phase was the suppression of fighting in several regions and the concentration on offensive operations in the Donbass. Ramzan Kadyrov, the noble buffoon of Ukraine, a man who owes his status as head of one of Russia’s important regions to a misunderstanding, called this the “concrete” phase of the operation (Kadyrov has really became the main laughingstock in Ukraine after his numerous boasts about the “defeat of the Banderites and the Satans,” and his Tiktok divisions have not distinguished themselves in actual combat).
Now the Russian authorities are making efforts to organize their administration and comprehensive management of the territory of the Kherson region - the one region of Ukraine that was taken by Russian units quickly and without a fight. Positions are being set up northeast of Kharkiv to prevent the APU units from reaching the border of the Belgorod region of Russia, which has been regularly shelled by Ukraine for two months. The scale of the alleged offensive against APU forces in the Donbass is being reduced. If earlier the Moscow generals has a clear plan to encircle the entire Donbass group of the APU, now, apparently, the task has been reduced to an attempt to create a “boiling cauldron” for these units in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration area. The cleansing of this region will allow Russian forces to completely occupy the territory of the Luhansk region, which the Luhansk People’s Republic has declared to be its own. This would allow the generals to report to President Vladimir Putin an “almost complete victory.”
But the problem for the Russian generals is that the APU are now receiving more and more weapons from Europe and the United States, and the size of the Ukrainian army is increasing, motivated, and driven by fighting spirit. The authorities and military in Kyiv have openly declared their intention to eventually drive the Russian army out of the Donbass. Some have even announced specific dates, predicting the Russian army will be knocked from from the region by the end of the summer. Now that Kyiv fully feels its military strength, it does not need peace negotiations, it needs a military victory. Moscow needs a truce. What is has is a slow-motion war, war as routine - which, 8 years after the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, is now the experience of the people of the DPR and LPR.
It is necessary here to make an important observation on the difference between Ukrainian and Russian generals, on why the one have planned and managed their side of the conflict much better than have the others, despite a similar mentality and, moreover, despite the fact that a significant number of the senior officers of the APU are Russians, and vice-versa. As it happens, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has received operational and strategic training from the British military. For a long time, British forces instructed officers and soldiers of the APU at the Yavorsky training ground in the Lviv region. That is, the command and control system of the Russian army, built during the period of the Yeltsin-Putin disgrace, is absolutely losing in comparison with the British and, apparently, other Western armies. Putin’s generals will learn nothing from their bloody mistakes. What this means for the prospects of the special operation is evident.
Sevierodonetsk (sp?) is now Russia's. Is it fog of war that my research shows Russian and their allied forces are achieving their goals? Conscripts now are inexperieced middle-aged men and even women are enlisting -- perhaps believing Zelensky's television propaganda. If you observe the weapons being "sent", there are too few to make a difference, as Biden has lost the respect and trust of his country. Germany will not ship. Britain's munitions may arrive in September. The West is moving on, having destroyed the Ukraine experiment. Syria and Taiwan appear to be the new targets. I thank the Russian people for their generous kindness to the refugees of the Donbass, and to their relief efforts in Mariupol. Your country sends bread and medicine. The U.S. send corrupt cash and old weapons. The U.S. foreign policy is truly disastrous -- getting worse every day
BULLSHIT!! Putin will NOT allow another NATO country to share a border with Russia or to impede the Russian navy's access to the Mediterranean sea or the Atlantic ocean. NOR SHOULD HE! The United States wouldn't allow an adversary to gain a military or political foothold in the entire Western hemisphere. Have any of you bogus propaganda promoters ever heard of the Monroe Doctrine? This Ukraine disaster falls at the feet of the United States and our reluctant lap dog, NATO. The architects of this fiasco were Blinkin and Sullivan, the same architects as the Afghanistan betrayal and shameful abandonment, all authorized by our senile president whom I voted for, because there was no other choice. Our foreign policy is a disaster and will continue to be.